As the final week of April draws to a close, South African motorists are bracing themselves for yet another blow to their wallets as petrol prices are expected to surge in the coming week. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) has revealed that petrol prices are currently experiencing a substantial under-recovery, setting the stage for a significant increase at the pumps.
Despite a slight retreat in global oil prices from the recent $90-plus threshold, the South African market is not set to benefit due to the depreciation of the rand. The weakened local currency has effectively nullified any potential relief stemming from the decrease in global oil prices, exacerbating the financial strain on consumers.
According to data from the CEF, petrol prices are currently lagging behind by 35 cents per litre, a concerning trend that has persisted for several days. While diesel prices are showing a more favorable over-recovery ranging between 30 to 37 cents per litre, it is unlikely to offset the impending burden on motorists, particularly those in industries reliant on diesel, such as freight and agriculture.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is poised to announce official adjustments to fuel prices, expected to take effect from Wednesday, 1 May. This announcement comes against the backdrop of global market dynamics, with Brent crude oil prices hovering above $89 a barrel and showing a weekly increase of 2.3%.
Bloomberg analysis suggests that the uptick in oil prices is driven by concerns over tightening supplies, coupled with anticipation surrounding the release of US inflation data. Despite a semblance of stability in the Middle East, global crude prices have remained buoyant throughout the year, fueled by supply cuts orchestrated by OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions in key regions.
Aldo Spanjer, senior commodities strategist at BNP Paribas, commented on the prevailing market conditions, noting, “We’re going into the $90s for crude for a while. What people are struggling with is that a lot of the increase we have seen is actually the macro environment.”
However, it’s not just global factors influencing the South African fuel market. The rand’s performance against the dollar has also played a pivotal role in exacerbating the under-recovery in petrol prices. Despite recent volatility, with exchange rates fluctuating between R18.65 to R19.25 in recent weeks, the rand’s contribution to fuel prices has remained relatively stagnant.
The narrative surrounding interest rate cuts in the United States, the world’s largest economy, has further compounded the rand’s woes. Market expectations of limited rate cuts this year have reverberated across global markets, including South Africa, where the prospect of rate hikes is gaining traction.
Nevertheless, recent developments within the local market have provided a glimmer of hope for the rand. Following the rejection of a $39 billion takeover bid for Anglo American Plc by BHP Billiton, the rand experienced a modest uptick, trading at approximately R18.85 to the dollar. This rejection has bolstered expectations of a higher bid, potentially attracting foreign currency inflows into the South African market.
Despite these localized boosts, the broader outlook for the rand remains uncertain, with ongoing fluctuations likely to impact fuel prices in the foreseeable future. As South African motorists prepare to navigate yet another round of petrol price hikes, the intersection of global market dynamics and domestic economic factors continues to underscore the challenges facing consumers in the fuel sector.
